Wheat - Just My Opinion

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections 528.8 K T. vs. 300-500 K T. expected

Weekly Winter Wheat Crop Condition & Progress 54% GE (-3%) vs. 57% expected vs. 54% year ago Planted - 92% vs. 93% expected vs. 92% 5-year average Emerged - 78% vs. 81% 5-year average

Big time short covering is featured in the KC wheat on Tuesday while Chgo follows and Mpls brings up the rear. Cash wheat continues to tighten from slow movement. Quality issues are not going away anytime soon. I have to think the single digit temps in the US Southern Plains would be impacting the recently emerged winter wheat.Weekly export inspections were looked on favorably as it was noted China taking one load of US wheat off of the PNW (either HRS or white). It was one of those rare moments that US prices was the upside leader of the World wheat markets. I doubt this can continue as US origin remains uncompetitive in the World export circles.

The interior basis for both SRW and HRW remain firm; HRW the firmer of the two. Gulf prices appear to be easing for SRW while HRW export values remain strong. I cant call basis values strong from demand but more so from slow movement and quality issues. We know a good portion of this past seasons SRW crop took a beating with its quality. In September HRW had to be delivered to satisfy Sept CBOT futures. Those receipts are no longer available. I have to think spreads will continue to be biased to improve considering the quality issues.

Todays price activity took Dec KC futures out of mediocrity and put them back on track to test the suspected resistance at $4.50. If Chgo futures are going to follow expect to see the Dec contract test the $5.40 level. The however to that is that they first need to get above last weeks interim high of $5.22.

Daily Support & Resistance for 11/13

Dec Chgo Wheat: $5.10 - $5.24 ($5.28)

Dec KC Wheat: $4.32 - $4.45

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Contact me! Tom Fritz, Agricultural Market Analyst at 1.800.786.4475.

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