AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Monday Corn is Trading Fractionally Lower

Corn Futures come out of the weekend mixed, but mostly fractionally lower. The weekly export inspections report from the USDA showed corn exports for the week ending 12/05 were only 481,097 MT. The report indicated that accumulated shipments increased to 6.532 MMT, compared to the 15.118 MMT through the same point last year. Estimates for ending stocks ahead of WASDE’s report tomorrow run from as low as 1.190 bbu, to 1.960 bbu and the average estimate of polled analysts is 1.902 bbu. World Stocks ideas are very close to the Nov. WASDE on average. The Commitment of Traders Report showed that as of Tuesday spec traders were still net short corn.

Dec 19 Corn is at $3.67 1/2, up 1 cent,

Mar 20 Corn is at $3.76 1/4, down 1/2 cent,

May 20 Corn is at $3.81 3/4, down 3/4 cent,

Jul 20 Corn is at $3.86, down 3/4 cent,

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans Still Rallying

Soybeans continue the rally from late last week with nearby futures making midday gains of 8 1/4 to 9 cents. Soybean meal futures are 60 cents/ton higher at midday. Soy oil futures are up by 53 points so far. Soybean exports from the USDA’s weekly report came in at 1.327 MMT for the week ending 12/05. That is a decrease of 248,707 MT wk/wk, but is a 43.22% increase from the same week last year. Wire reports have China buying as much as 300,000 MT of US soybeans for Jan-Feb delivery following last week’s Chinese tariff shift. Pre-WASDE estimates for U.S. soybean carryout range from 392 to 522 mbu with the average of those polled at 474 mbu. It looks to us like the market is now trading a smaller number with this rally. Average estimates for world carryout remained firm with the Nov. WASDE, at 95.9 MMT. The CFTC report from Friday afternoon showed managed money was net short in beans as of 12/3. Meal spec traders were net short, whereas managed money was net long in bean oil. FOB prices for soybeans have America at $347/ ton with Argentina and Brazil at $357 and $359 respectively.

Jan 20 Soybeans are at $8.98 1/4, up 8 3/4 cents,

Mar 20 Soybeans are at $9.12 3/4, up 9 cents,

May 20 Soybeans are at $9.26 3/4, up 8 1/2 cents,

Jul 20 Soybeans are at $9.39 3/4, up 8 1/4 cents,

Dec 19 Soybean Meal is at $298.00, up $0.60

Dec 19 Soybean Oil is at $31.54, up $0.53

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Market Remains Firm in Deliveries

Deliverable Dec wheat futures are remaining firm at Monday’s midday. With Chicago falling by 1 cent, KC wheat down by a half, and MGE HRS is steady. There were zero deliveries against Chicago December again overnight. The oldest long has moved up to November 8. There were 4 contracts put out against KC December to current date buyers. The USDA’s weekly export inspections update pushed the MY accumulated wheat exports through 12/05 to 13.017 MMT. Following 313,810 MT of weekly shipments, it pushed the accumulated exports to 18% above last year. Mexico was the main destination with a 19.5% share of wheat exports, after them were Thailand and Japan with 17.53% and 17.41% respectively. Estimates for U.S. wheat carryover in the December 10 report range from 964 mbu to 1.05 bbu. Analysts expect for world wheat carryover to range from 283.9 to 290 MMT, which on average is a 1.4 MMT reduction form the Nov. WASDE. The CFTC report showed that Spec funds were net long Chicago wheat; Kansas City managed money traders were net short; and as for MGE wheat futures, managed money was net short on 12/3..

Dec 19 CBOT Wheat is at $5.31 1/2, down 1 cent,

Dec 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.15 1/2, up 1/2 cent,

Dec 19 MGEX Wheat is at $4.97, unch,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Market Lower so far

Live cattle futures are mostly lower, with April futures down by 20 cents at midday. Feeder cattle futures are also lower at midday with futures down by as much as 75 cents so far. The 12/05 CME Feeder Cattle index was $144.49, dropping by 4 cents. As of Tuesday, Spec traders were net long by 78,214 contracts for Live cattle futures. In the same Commitment of Traders Report, spec fund traders were shown net long feeder cattle futures as well. Their position was 1,371 contracts as of 12/03. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower but tightened the spread to 16.81. Choice boxes showed a $1.55 decrease, while select boxes were $1.10 lower. The USDA is showing cash sales from $116 to $120 through the weekend and early on Monday. The YTD estimated FI cattle slaughter was 31.026 million head through Saturday.

Dec 19 Cattle are at $120.175, down $0.025,

Feb 20 Cattle are at $124.575, down $0.400,

Apr 20 Cattle are at $125.150, down $0.200,

Jan 20 Feeder Cattle are at $140.800, down $0.750

Mar 20 Feeder Cattle are at $141.425, down $0.250

Apr 20 Feeder Cattle are at $143.375, down $0.400

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures Fall by Triple Digits

Lean hog futures are lower in the front months at midday. Futures are down by as much as a dollar so far. China indicated that it would suspend import tariffs on an unspecified quantity of pork, emphasizing purchases should be made on the open market. This was likely a hint to the US to reduce tariffs and take a more open market stance in return. The 12/6 Fresh Bacon Index from CME was lowered by $8.43 to $131.15. The 12/05 CME Lean Hog Index was at $58.49, after a 15-cent increase. In the weekly update from the CFTC, managed money was shown at 3,774 contracts net short for Lean Hog Futures. That is the second consecutive week the spec traders held a short position after a 36 consecutive week streak being net long. This morning’s pork carcass cutout value 93 cents higher to $83.01. Picnic shoulder cuts were the biggest mover, with a $3.21 cent gain. USDA’s national average base hog price for 12/05 was $0.08 lower to $46.59. The YTD estimate for FI hog slaughter was 120.679 million head through Saturday.

Dec 19 Hogs are at $60.150, down $0.975,

Feb 20 Hogs are at $66.550, down $1.000

Apr 20 Hogs are at $72.825, down $0.875

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Mostly Lower at Mondays Midday

Cotton futures start the week with 31 to 63 point losses; March futures have given back all of last week’s 59 point gains. The 5-day accumulated precipitation from the National Weather Service shows that there is between 3/4 of an inch to 1 1/2 inches forecasted from Virginia along the southern coast through Texas. The CFTC report showed that as of Tuesday managed money spec traders were 7,661 contracts net short. The 12/06 Cotlook A Index gave back 25 points, at 73.90. The weekly AWP was 55.97 cents/lb.

Mar 20 Cotton is at 65.37, down 63 points,

May 20 Cotton is at 66.39, down 46 points

Jul 20 Cotton is at 67.2, down 31 points

Oct 20 Cotton is at 67.76, unch

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com