TFM Sunrise Update Aug 2, 2021

CORN

Corn futures were choppy overnight as prices continue to move sideways to start the month of August.  Weekly export inspections will be out later this morning following last week's mostly disappointing Weekly Export Sales numbers that featured another week of net cancellations.  We'll also get grain crushing data after the close today.  Corn used in ethanol production is expected to be up 18.1% year over year to 448 mil bu.  Weather will continue to sway price direction as market analysts tweak production forecasts around the USDA trendline yield of 179.3 bushels per acre.  Dec corn is down 1-3/4 cents to 5.43-1/2 this morning, mid-range of a 66 cent trading between July 21 high of 5.73, the low of 5.07 from July 9.  Recent showers are seen benefiting much of the Midwest, but look drier this week.  Elsewhere, dryness and frosts have created undue stress for filling corn in Brazil, and recent flooding has likely caused damage in central and northeast China. 

SOYBEANS

Soybean futures are down 7 cents in the November contract to 13.42-1/4 this morning while actively trading and moving.  The contract is respecting 100-day moving average support drawn at 13.33 while trending sideways.  Underlying support stems from an uncertain weather outlook in the Western Corn Belt.  Hot temperatures are expected to return to several key states as we begin the important month of August for the bean crop.  Overnight, Chinese Sept Bean futures were down 19 yuan ; Soymeal down 22; Soyoil down 202;  Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 252 ringgit (-5.77%) at 4117 heading for its biggest drop in more than a month on a further decline in soybean oil futures and a fall in shipments from second-biggest grower Malaysia.  Besides Weekly Export Inspections and crop condition ratings today, we'll get Crush data after the close.  The soybean crush is seen at 162 mil bu for June, a 8.6% drop from year ago.  Crude and once-refined soybean-oil reserves at end of June are seen at 1.992 bil lbs, down from 2.271 bil.

WHEAT

Wheat futures trade higher overnight with Sept KC wheat making a new multi-month high at 6.88-1/4 on gains of 15 cents.  September Chicago was up 13 cents to 7.16-3/4 as dry conditions in the northern U.S. combine with Eastern European yields being lower than expected to start the harvest propel the markets into overbought territory.  Last week's Spring Wheat crop tour results for North Dakota were the lowest since 1993.  The next upside objective for the Chicago contract lies at 7.20.  Sept MPLS wheat is up 4 cents to 9.09 while maintaining a series of higher daily lows on the chart.  The contract high is etched at 9.44-1/2.

CATTLE

Cattle futures are called mixed for this morning following a soft performance Friday due to disappointing cash trade.  Many cattle sold for $120/cwt with some animals trading hands at $122 to $123.50 om Kansas.  Prices were better up north, as high as $125/cwt versus the front month Aug live cattle contract at 122.07.  Oct closed at 127.20.  Technically, prices are in a strong position to move higher if resistance areas are taken out.  127.70 stands as a next area of resistance for Oct ahead of the upside target of 128.55.  On the downside, 126.65 is support. 

HOGS

Hogs are called mixed to weaker on follow-through from a lower finish to last week and month.  Oct hogs, at 88.025 are back below 100-day moving average support to start the day with a next downside objective at 86.10.  Prices may see some buying interest develop following four days consecutive days of losses as Chinese demand lessens and supplies increase.  Cash is holding a premium over futures, and Friday's pork cutout values were up $1.10 to 124.97.