AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn futures are trading fractionally higher this morning after closing 3 1/2 to 4 1/2 cents lower on Friday. Preliminary open interest rose 26,337 contracts on Friday, with most (+13751) of the net new selling in the December contract. The CFTC Commitment of Traders report on Friday afternoon showed spec traders adding another 7,747 contracts to their net short position during the week that ended 10/17. Their net position on that date totaled -170,684 contracts in corn futures and options. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange sees planting progress at 27.7% complete, 5% above this time last year. Acreage intentions are larger. On Friday, China sold 1.95 MMT of the total 3.767 MMT offered at an auction of state reserves.


Soybean futures are mostly1/4 to 1 cent per bushel lower this morning after losing 7 1/4 to 7 3/4 cents in the nearby contracts on Friday. Preliminary open interest rose 3,153 contracts during Friday’s decline. December meal was $4.30/ton lower, with nearby bean oil 33 points higher. The CME is lowering the daily price limit to 65 cents for soybeans, which will take effect on November 1. The weekly COT report had spec traders adding another 37,186 contracts to their net long position in soybean futures and options. Their net position on Tuesday was net long 68,168 contracts.


Wheat futures are mixed this morning, with MPLS spring wheat 1 to 2 cents higher. The Chicago SRW contracts are fractionally lower while KC HRW is fractionally higher. This follows a 4 to 7 cent drop in most contracts to end last week. Managed money spec funds in KC wheat futures and options went 5,505 contracts more bearish last week. They went home net short 4,662 contracts on October 17. In Chicago wheat futures and options, they increased the size of their CFTC net short position another 9,963 contracts to -77,692. The USDA Ag attach in Australia sees the 2017 production at 20 MMT, 1.5 MMT below the current WASDE supply and demand table, mainly due to dry weather impacts on yield. The Ukraine Ag Ministry estimates that winter wheat planting is 90% complete, while AgriMer projects the French wheat crop is 47% planted.


Live cattle futures settled Friday with gains of 45 to 62.5 cents in the front months. Feeder cattle futures were 12.5 to 47.5 cents higher. The CME feeder cattle index was 29 cents lower at $154.79 on October 19.There were 32 deliveries vs. October cattle futures over the weekend, with RJO clients the major players. Wholesale beef prices were higher in Friday afternoon’s report. Choice was up 29 cents at $199.86, with select boxes 38 cents higher at $191.14. Weekly FI cattle slaughter is estimated at 632,000 head through Saturday, about 10,000 larger than the previous week and 30,000 head above the same week last year. Cash trade ended the week at $111, steady with the previous week. Friday afternoon’s Cattle on Feed report showed on feed numbers 5.43% larger than last October 1 at 10.813 million head. That came from larger than expected placements at 2.15 million head, 13.46% above last September and September marketings at 2.94% greater than last year at 1.783 million head.

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures finished Friday with most contracts 47.5 to 62.5 cents higher. The CME Lean Hog Index for 10/18 jumped another $1.13 over the previous day at $63.34. The national base hog was up 88 cents at $64.37 in the Friday afternoon report. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was $1.18 higher at $75.50. Estimated FI hog slaughter last week was 31,000 head fewer than the previous week at 2,485,000 head. That was 39,000 smaller than the same week in 2016.


Cotton futures are up a sharp 114 to 147 points this morning. They were 24 to 43 points lower in most contracts on Friday, pressured by a sharply rising US dollar, up 397 points. The dollar reversed direction in overseas trading, and is up 261 points this morning. The Adjusted World Price (AWP) was updated to 59.73 cents/lb, down 71 points from the previous week.The Cotlook A index for October 19 was unchanged from the previous day at 77.85 cents/lb. The CFTC reported nearly 13.902 million bales worth of sales in unpriced mill on-call options spread out all the way to March 2020. The Friday night Commitment of Traders report showed the managed money spec funds again trimming the net long position in cotton futures/options. They were still net long 48,682 lots on October 17.

Market Commentary provided by:

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